The air freight sector has entered 2025 with a complex mix of rising capacity, shifting demand and regulatory changes. For businesses that rely on air cargo to move goods across borders, understanding the latest trends is essential. At Jenkar, we are closely monitoring the key drivers behind air freight pricing to help our customers stay informed and make better decisions.
One of the most significant recent developments has been the reduction in e-commerce shipments, particularly from China to the United States. This is largely due to the end of the “de minimis” exemption in the US, which previously allowed low-value imports to enter the country without customs duties. As this policy changed in early May, platforms such as Shein and Temu have seen a steep decline in volumes, with overall air cargo shipments from Asia to the US dropping by as much as 30 percent compared to last year.
For shippers based in the UK or Europe, this reduction in global demand could result in more available capacity and potentially lower rates on some routes. However, it also reflects a wider trend of shifting consumer behaviour and trade policy impacts on global air cargo networks.
After several years of constrained space and pandemic-related disruption, global air freight capacity is on the rise. Much of this is thanks to the recovery of passenger travel, which increases the amount of belly-hold space available on commercial aircraft. According to IATA, this type of cargo space now accounts for more than half of all international shipments.
While this is welcome news for availability, it creates an imbalance when demand does not rise at the same pace. Many airlines are finding that aircraft are flying with excess space, which puts downward pressure on air freight rates and affects overall market stability. Customers may benefit from short-term savings, but pricing could remain unpredictable throughout the year.
The global political landscape is also affecting air freight pricing. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the situation in Ukraine, have forced many carriers to adjust their flight paths, leading to longer journeys and higher operational costs. These reroutes are necessary for safety and compliance, but they reduce efficiency and can cause delays.
Additionally, new tariffs and trade restrictions are adding layers of complexity to shipping plans. For example, the latest round of US tariffs on Chinese goods led to a temporary rush on air cargo space as businesses tried to bring goods in before the changes took effect. These fluctuations can create short-term spikes in air freight prices and lead to bottlenecks at major hubs.
Jet fuel remains one of the biggest expenses for air freight carriers. While fuel prices have dipped slightly in recent months, they are still higher than pre-pandemic levels and continue to influence rate calculations. Any sudden increases in fuel cost can quickly translate into higher air cargo prices, especially on long-haul or time-sensitive routes.
For UK importers and exporters, the current air cargo market presents both challenges and opportunities. While rates on some routes may be more favourable due to increased capacity, unpredictability remains a concern. Businesses should continue to plan ahead, book space early when possible and stay flexible with their routing options.
At Jenkar, we work closely with our airline partners to ensure our customers get competitive pricing, transparent updates and reliable service across every shipment. Our investment in smarter systems and real-time tracking also means we can respond quickly to changes and keep your supply chain moving.
Need air freight support? Request your free quote today and take the next step towards smoother, smarter shipping with Jenkar.
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